Dante win means that he looks to be the one they all have to beat.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years: Age
Race for 3yos Breeding
Irish bred: 6-12-78
British bred: 3-6-48
American bred: 1-2-17
German bred: 0-0-1
French bred: 0-0-2
10 of 10 winners by a sire with a stamina index of 8.6+
9 of 10 winners sired by a group 1 winner
5 of 10 winners by a sire that’d won or placed in English or Irish 2000 Guineas
5 of 10 winners by a sire who’d finished in the first 2 in the King George
10 of 10 winners were born before 7th April Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had had 2 to 5 career starts
10 of 10 winners had run 1 or 2 times that season
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on all starts that season
7 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions finished 2nd in 2000 Guineas & other was 2nd in Dante)
10 of 10 winners achieved an RPR of 114+ last time out
10 of 10 winners ran in the last 35 days
5 of 10 winners won a group 1 as a 2yo (5 exceptions didn’t run in a group 1 as 2yo)
9 of 10 winners had won a group race (exception was Workforce last year, who may have won Dante but for the bit going through his mouth)
9 of 10 winners had won at the highest grade they’d run in
6 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F (3 exceptions finished 1st or 2nd in 2000 Guineas and other was an unlucky 2nd in Dante)
9 of 10 winners made their debut in a 7F or 8F race
9 of 10 winners made their debut at a group 1 track
The last 10 winners of the Derby had collectively run 38 times before winning the race. In those 38 starts they had finished outside the first 2 only 3 times, all 3 occasions were on their racecourse debut as a 2yo. 2yo Form
Dewhurst winner (Frankel): 311 (2-1-3)
National Stakes winner (Pathfork): 2031 (1-2-4)
Beresford Stakes winner (Casamento): 30201 (1-2-5)
Futurity Stakes winner (Pathfork): 20P1 (1-1-4)
Tyros Stakes winner (Zoffany): 14 (1-0-2)
Criterium De Saint-Cloud winner (Recital): 092 (0-1-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Racing Post Trophy, finishing 111
2 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst Stakes, finishing 11 3yo Form
Record of 2nd, 3rd or 4th in 2000 Guineas: 24701104 (2-1-8)
Dante Stakes winner (Carlton House): 739110120 (3-2-9)
Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial winner (Recital): 113430325 (2-4-9)
Dee Stakes winners (Glen’s Diamond): 15080 (1-0-5)
Cocket Hat Stakes winner (Masked Marvel): F703 (0-1-4)
Lingfield Derby Trial winner (Dordogne): 6804093670 (0-1-10)
Newmarket Stakes winner (Ocean War): 80 (0-0-2)
Gallinule Stakes winner (Alexander Pope): 04 (0-0-2)
Bet365 Classic Trial winner (Genius Beast): 00400 (0-0-5)
Chester Vase winner (Treasure Beach): 56605450 (0-0-8)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Dante, finishing 1112
3 of 10 winners ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 221
2 of 10 winners ran in the Derrinstown Dtud Derby Trial, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the Ballysax Stakes, finishing 11 Trainers
British-trained runners: 6-10-94
Irish-trained runners: 4-9-47
French-trained runners: 0-1-5
Michael Stoute (3-2-10) has won the race 3 times in past 10 years and his first strings’ record reads 211021 (3-2-6).
Aidan O’Brien (2-7-39) won back to back runnings in 2001 & 2002, but since then has managed just 6 places from 35 runners.
John Oxx (1-1-2), Marcus Tregoning (1-1-4), Jim Bolger (1-0-2), Peter Chapple-Hyam (1-0-2) and Michael Bell (1-0-3) have all won the race once in the past 10 years.
Saeed Bin Suroor (0-4-9) and John Dunlop (0-2-4) have both had multiple placed finishers since 2000. Price
10 of 10 winners came from first 4 in the betting & priced 6/1 or below.
Favourites (4-4-12) have won 4 of the last 10 and show a level stakes profit of 4.50 over past 10 years. Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• By a group 1 winning sire with a stamina index of 8.6+
• Born before 07/04/2008
• Made debut over 7F or 8F at a group 1 track
• Run 2 to 5 times before (and once or twice this year)
• Never finished worse than 2nd (excluding racecourse debuts)
• Had run in the past 35 days
• Won last time out (or finished 2nd in 2000 Guineas/Dante)
• Won the Dewhurst or Racing Post Trophy as a 2yo
• Won Dante, Derrinstown or placed in 2000 Guineas as 3yo
• Won a group race
• Won a group 1 (or having first try in a group 1)
• Won over 7F+ as a 2yo & over 1M 2F as a 3yo
• Trained by M Stoute, J Oxx or A O’Brien
• Priced 6/1 or below |
Epsom Derby
