Irish Independent Arkle Trophy looks right up to standard this year with some really decent novice chasers set to line-up. Looking to the past trends for pointers; the winner is likely to be aged between five and eight, although given this is a top class novice chase, that is hardly surprising and one has to go back to 1988 to find a winner outside of this age bracket. The last ten winners all had no more than five races over fences coming into this; slightly more relevant but perhaps the real interesting trend is that no winner has started greater than 9/1 for the past 10-years.
Cue Card
racing-images.co.uk
 |
Cue Card has Cheltenham Festival form in the book which is always a huge pointer to further success at the greatest jumps meeting on the calendar. In 2010, at the tender age of 4, Colin Tizzard's charge slammed his older rivals by upwards of 8-lengths to win the 2011 Supreme Novices' where he was a 5 1/4 length third to Al Ferof and Cue Card. That was a good effort but it was disappointing that he went from travelling supremely well to stopping quickly up the hill. That was on decent ground as well and given he has mostly been kept to easier tracks, there have to be some concerns about his stamina so given his price, there may be better value elsewhere.
Peddlers Cross has a tremendous win record encoming a point, a bumper, plenty of hurdles and a couple of chases to boot. Nothing to crab about in his record but he was beaten 17-lengths by Sprinter Sacre at Kempton over Christmas and by his high standards, that has to go down as a poor effort. It may be that his clouting of the first did for his chance as he never got close to his free-running rival but post-race, trainer Donald McCain expressed reservations about 2-miles being far enough and given that the horse won the Victor Chandler and having watched him finish third to Somersby, I was initially less than impressed. On reflection though, he was still a novice taking on top class experienced chasers and given the RPR awarded was a career best, my initial judgment was perhaps harsh. Has the all important festival form on his record; a second in the Bumper and a win in the Supreme Novices’ and at 7/1, he may yet prove good value.In summary, a cracking contest is on the cards and all the leading contenders fall into the stats and trends profile that dominate the Arkle. Sprinter Sacre is currently at the head of the market with Peddlers Cross next but there are slight doubts about both. CUE CARD on the other hand rather silenced his critics last time and I think he is the value at 10/1 to justify his trainer’s faith. Al Ferof appeals next at 7/1 in a race where those near the head of the market historically fare best. Recommendation: Cue Card at 10/1
|
